Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The Reality of Inflation in the U.S.: Argument & Rebuttal


I got a response from someone earlier today stating the following:
Who's going to call in our debts? China? Japan? If anybody tries the world economy collapses overnight... The US dollar is and will continue to be the reserve currency of choice for the world, only a complete failure of the US economy, far worse than the great depression, or any other financial crisis the world has seen will change that.
 Inflation is at a low level of 2%, Only if the fed started printing more than 1 trillion a month would that go up dramatically, and even then it would be checked through other measures. And the fed money printing? a large portion of that is churn, money coming back and being reissued. The rest is interest and such from treasury bills and a moderate increase in the money supply
And the US is so completely different from cyprus, they can't possibly be compared to each other.

My response is the following:
First let me state, that the definition of inflation is money-printing. 
We seem to be living in a world where everyone wants to ignore reality is or just misinformed.  $45 billion a month as QE4 besides the QE3's 40 billion. It means that the Fed is and has been creating $85 billion out of thin air.  What's so small about this? That's a lot of money. 
That "low" inflation level you mention is based on government figures.  There are lots of reasons not to believe the CPI that the government gives to us.  Over the last 35 years, the government has changed the way it calculates inflation MANY times.  Using the pre-1980 method, inflation would be over 9%, compared to about 2% in the "official" statistics.  Why do you think the government would change the way they calculate inflation? Ah, it's very simple: so they can hide it from the public and print more money without people being able to "detect" it.  And I wouldn't be surprised if they "re-evaluated" how they calculate inflation several more times this decade. 
Part of the reason inflation isn't even higher is foreign countries - primarily the Chinese - are still exporting to us.  We are using our printed-off dollars in exchange for Chinese and other imported goods from foreign countries.  Thus we are exporting our inflated currency in exchange for goods, so this money is not "staying" here in the US. Thus the foreign countries we buy from get the "benefit" of the inflation we created. 
When interest rates rise which they inevitably will do this means our government will have to pay higher amounts on the interest they owe on the debt.  If you look at how our debt has been rising it is exponential growth.  Just Google a chart.  Higher interest rates will not help.  Meanwhile our President as a candidate for President promised he'd cut the deficit in half when he got into office.  Now he is saying the deficit levels can be sustained for the next 10 years.
The US is different from Cyprus, you are right.  The difference is, the US has a printing press while Cyprus does not.  That is the difference.

1 comment:

  1. From a recent Yahoo article: "Under a proposal that would cut the deficit by $1.8 trillion over 10 years, the president will offer to apply a less generous measure of inflation to calculate cost-of-living increases, the official said on condition of anonymity."

    Again, another attempt at the government to hide inflation.

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